A Game of Slow Growth for Maximum Profit: lazybear.gg
• By vski5 • 2 minutes read
Project Introduction
This is a Ponzi game, Lazy Bear River, derived from the Sonic NFT project LazyBear. It simulates a simplified ecosystem of fish and bears on the blockchain, with a maximum of 6,900 fish. Fish, as food, are consumed by bears created by players through spending. When the fish population’s growth rate cannot keep up with the bears’ consumption rate, the fish population decreases until a new equilibrium is reached. Since the number of bears does not decrease, the growing bear population will eventually lead to insufficient fish, resulting in the game’s conclusion, profit settlement, and the start of the next round.
Players participate by staking a LazyBear NFT or spending 10 $FISH to create a bear.
The economic model draws from the ecological Logistic growth equation:
- ΔN = r × N × (K-N)/K
- When the fish population is low (far below the environmental carrying capacity), the growth rate is near its maximum.
- As the fish population increases and approaches the carrying capacity, the growth rate gradually decreases.
- When the fish population reaches the carrying capacity, the growth rate becomes zero, and the population stabilizes, ceasing to grow.
Since the bear population does not decrease, the maximum fish population gradually declines, so each point represents a balance. When the fish population can no longer grow, the fish and bear populations reach equilibrium.
The main features are threefold:
- Introducing NFT staking with destruction—participation in the game is a fight to the death.
- The ecosystem is like Norse mythology, destined to collapse completely before starting a new round.
- A slow and ambitious game cycle, or rather a long lock-up period. At the time of writing, priced in $FISH, it requires a fixed 25 days (1460% APR).
Rational Analysis
1. Investment
Players can participate by staking a LazyBear NFT (floor price 139 $S) or spending 10 $FISH (approximately 110 $S at the time of writing) to create a bear. 
2. Break-even Period
At the time of writing, each bear produces 0.1 $FISH per epoch (6 hours). Priced in $FISH, it requires a fixed 25 days (1460% APR).
More participants do not reduce individual profits, but the ecosystem cannot support too many players. This is good news for the token price, albeit lacking imagination.
In my opinion, they could open multiple maps to divert players and create more competition, but the project’s low popularity and long break-even period make that unlikely.
2.2 Collapse Time Estimation
The game launched on 2025-05-13 at 19:00 (UTC+8). After about one day, the ecosystem’s health has decreased by 0.73%, with 1,125 bears staked, equivalent to nearly 80,000 $S invested, ignoring LazyBear NFT staking, based on current prices.
Future traffic is unknown. Assuming the initial enthusiasm for minting continues, calculations suggest concavity must be considered to determine collapse time. Roughly 39 cycles, or about ten days, could lead to collapse, depending on subsequent popularity.
4. Pool Size
